Hay prices in the West have remained stable overall, though premium and fair-grade hay are $5-10 lower than this time last year. Mid-June storms brought wind and rain across the western U.S., causing cutting delays and some hay damage. Alfalfa sales are struggling with minimal demand from exporters or dairies. Adding to the uncertainty is the looming 90-day tariff pause deadline, set to expire on July 9. There is little expectation that trade deals will be finalized in time. This further complicates the outlook for hay exports.
Arizona - Current conditions indicate moderate trade activity and steady prices across the state. As of July 3, over 97% of Arizona faced moderate to severe drought, impacting forage and pasture conditions. While Arizona pastures have shown some improvement over the past month, with those rated very poor to poor decreasing from 91% to 86%, this remains a challenging situation. By comparison, only 41% were in very poor to poor condition during the same time last year. Despite ongoing drought, the hay market has remained stable. Although temperatures exceeding 115°F continue to stress alfalfa stands, most of the crop is rated in good to excellent condition.
California – Hay demand remains steady, supported by strong retail and dairy interest, though export demand has been slower. Hot temperatures in May and June have affected hay quality. This has increased the supply of fair and good quality hay on the market. As a result, prices for lower grades have faced downward pressure. Hay prices in the southern San Joaquin Valley are deteriorating. Offers for third cutting (dry cow hay) in the $170 per ton to $200 per ton range.
Idaho – The price range for good-quality hay has widened compared to the previous year. High-end hay is trading about $5 more per ton than last year, while some lower-quality hay is selling for $10-15 less per ton. Demand has picked up slightly in recent weeks as the new crop enters the market. As of June 29, over 90% of the first cutting was completed, ahead of the 2024 harvest schedule. Most of the crop is in good condition, though late June storms caused some rain damage.
Montana – Hay prices remain slightly elevated due to solid demand. By June 29, over 28% of the first hay cutting was completed. This aligns with the five-year average. Most of the current crop is in good to excellent condition. As of June 29, 47% of Montana pastures were rated as poor or very poor, leading many ranchers to start purchasing hay. Without rain, ranchers may need to begin feeding hay to cattle before August. In eastern Montana, severe hailstorms in mid-June caused significant damage to fields, buildings, and equipment.
Oregon – In Oregon, the first cutting is complete, and 36% of the second cutting was underway as of June 29. Progress is ahead of last year’s schedule. Hay demand remains slow and is not expected to pick up for a few weeks. Prices for all grades of alfalfa and grass hay have dropped compared to the same time last year. Oregon alfalfa prices averaged $185 per ton, $40 less than the previous year. Prices for other hay types also declined, but more modestly, falling by just $10 per ton year over year.
Washington – Export demand remains sluggish, except for timothy hay, causing alfalfa hay prices to drop nearly $20 per ton compared to the same time last year. While there is international demand for timothy hay, importers have been highly price sensitive. Timothy export markets have seen narrowing in the price gap between fair and premium grades, and an overall decline in prices. (Even the highest prices for timothy hay are now below the lowest values seen in 2024.) Meanwhile, in eastern Washington, dryland hay production is expected to yield below-average results due to dry growing conditions.
Profitability
Hay (Alfalfa): Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlookHay (Timothy): Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Slow exports and sluggish domestic demand have kept alfalfa prices low, posing challenges to profitability.
Exporters' increasing interest in timothy hay could boost grower profitability.
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