Tuesday, November 5, 2024
How low can hay go?
The price of hay continues to set market lows not seen for nearly five years. The September average price is now over $100 less than just two years ago. It will be interesting to see if the typical cyclic rise in prices occurs over the winter months or if hay inventories are still large enough to offset any upward market movement.
The September average price of alfalfa dropped for the fourth consecutive month, according to data from the USDA’s Agricultural Prices report. The average September price for alfalfa hay dropped to $172 per ton, down $3 from the previous month. The average grass (other) hay price retreated to $140 per ton, $8 below the September price.
The average price for Supreme and Premium alfalfa hay also dropped, settling at $227 per ton, which was $9 lower than the previous month.
Only one state, Ohio, posted a double-digit month-over-month alfalfa price gain during September; its price was up by $15 per ton and followed a $10 boost the previous month in the drought-stricken state.
Double-digit declines during September were noted in six states. Pennsylvania was down $21 per ton, while Oklahoma and New York experienced a $20 per ton drop. Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah declined by $10 per ton.
The highest average September alfalfa hay price was reported in Texas at $270 per ton and was followed by New Mexico at $250. California posted a $230 average price, while Kentucky and Oregon settled at $220 per ton.
North Dakota and Minnesota posted the lowest average alfalfa price at $100 per ton. They were followed by South Dakota at $110.
Keep in mind that USDA average prices account for all qualities and bale types of hay sold. Also, the final U.S. estimate is a volume-weighted average rather than a simple average of state values. Those states with the most volume sales will impact the final U.S. dollar value more than those states with fewer sales.
Supreme and Premium
The USDA also tracks the prices of Supreme and Premium quality alfalfa in the major dairy states and determines an average price from the five top milk-producing states (California, Idaho, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin). This data is used to determine feed prices in the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program.
For September, the average price of Supreme and Premium alfalfa hay dropped by $9 per ton to $227, which followed price declines the previous three months. One year ago, the average price of Supreme and Premium alfalfa hay was $288 per ton.
Other hay
The September average price of other hay (mostly grass) dropped by $8 from August to $140 per ton, which was $27 per ton lower than a year ago.
The highest September price for hay other than alfalfa was reported in Oregon at $220 per ton. Washington had the next highest price at $215.
Minnesota had the lowest reported other hay average price at $80 per ton. It was followed by Oklahoma at $83 per ton.
Monday, November 4, 2024
State-By-State Hay Summary
Colorado—In the Oct. 24 report, compared to last report, trade activity moderate on light demand. Hay movement picked up some in the dairy and horse hay markets. Small squares of horse hay steady. According to the NASS Colorado Crop Progress Report for week ending Oct. 20, alfalfa fourth cutting, 75%. Stored feed supplies were reported as 2% very short, 7% short, 75% adequate, and 16% surplus.
Missouri—In the Oct. 24 report, compared to last report, hay prices are steady to weak. The supply of hay is moderate to heavy, and demand is light. Dryness continues to worsen across the state. Reports of some livestock owners now having to haul water as ponds have dried up in some locations. For much of the state it has been nearly a month without any measurable rainfall and fall pasture growth just never happened. A surplus of hay baled in the first half of the year means there is currently plenty of feed available, but it is still to be seen if that supply will last all season with the early start to feeding. Several producers are already looking at other feed sources be it corn or some by products in order to stretch the hay to a more traditional feeding date. Thus far there hasn’t seemed to be an uptick in eagerness to buy hay but that could change quickly in the coming weeks as feeding occurs if farmers decide that what looked to be a surplus might night be enough any longer.
Nebraska—In the Oct. 24 report, compared to last report, bales of alfalfa sold steady, grass hay sold $10 lower, dehydrated alfalfa pellets sold $25 lower in the Platte Valley and remains steady in the east. Ground and delivered hay steady. Buyer inquiries and demand picked up. Getting that time of year where prospective buyers are starting to look around for what fits their budget to feed their livestock through the winter. Some buyers are thinking about the dryness and are buying a little more hay for some insurance if it stays dry through 2025. Farmers are starting to bale cornstalks and corn shucks along with soybean stubble.
Oklahoma—In the Oct. 25 report, compared to the last report, the hay trade is slow to a standstill. Movement is only for long-time customers and contracted hay. There is still an abundance of hay in Oklahoma. The drought continues to worsen; over a quarter of the state is in an extreme drought. Rain is needed for animals, for the ponds to start to fill up, or for water supplies. Next report will be released Nov. 8.
Texas—In the Oct. 18 report, compared to last report, hay prices are mostly steady to weak across all regions. Hay movement and demand remain limited. Warmer than average temperatures throughout September and October have forage and winter wheat producers statewide battling fall armyworms. The majority of the hay put up in that region has been in the utility to fairy category, but some higher quality hay is beginning to hit the stacks now. Next report will be released Nov. 1.
South Dakota—In the Oct. 18 report, compared to last report, demand and movement for all hay has been extremely slower than normal, producers are saying it has been quiet. Most producers are stating corn harvest and what hay that is being sold is going out of state.
New Mexico—In the Oct. 25 report, compared to last week, hay demand is light with not much movement. According to NASS, New Mexico Crop Progress report, alfalfa hay is in the sixth cutting 50% complete.
Wyoming—In the Oct. 24 report, compared to the last report, movement and demand is light for this time of year all over Wyoming. According to the Wyoming Crop Progress Report, as of Oct. 20, alfalfa hay 3rd cutting is 76% completed, other hay 2nd cutting is 40% harvested, corn harvested for silage is 92% completed in the state.