Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Hay updates - Water concerns are top of mind for western hay growers

Arizona – Alfalfa hay trading has been slow due to scattered rains across the region, which caused some damage to hay crops. Sudan and bermuda grass were also affected, with some receiving rain damage that lowered quality to below export standards. Retail trends in the region are shifting toward big bales. Meanwhile, dairies in the area are switching to hay alternatives with California bringing in cottonseed and almond hulls to supplement their needs.

Water concerns for 2026 remain pressing as negotiations over Colorado River water allocations continue. Changes in the new agreement could result in reduced water availability for Southwest hay growers, potentially driving a major shift in agricultural practices.

The Colorado River irrigates over a million acres of farmland across the western U.S., including in California, Arizona, and Nevada (the Lower Basin). Irrigation water supplies in the Lower Basin are currently at risk due to negotiations over water allocations and ongoing drought. (The river’s two main reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are alarmingly low, standing at just 31% of their capacity.)

Colorado River water allocations are managed by an agreement among seven U.S. basin states, 30 federally recognized tribes, and the Government of Mexico. Current guidelines are set to expire next year. Negotiators have until Nov. 11 to reach a new operating agreement or risk U.S. federal intervention. To date, no consensus has been reached.

California – In the Imperial Valley, the closure of a sugar beet plant impacted approximately 25,000 acres. Area producers largely shifted to crops like bermuda and alfalfa, resulting in an oversupply of forage that may put pressure on prices. While hay prices for high-quality products could improve this winter, lower-quality hay prices are expected to remain sluggish. Water availability is stable but—as noted in the Arizona hay update—2026 Colorado River water guideline negotiations will be crucial for the region's agricultural future.

In the southern San Joaquin Valley, many growers are completing their sixth and final hay cutting of the season. Harvesting hay after Oct. 15 presents challenges, but there is optimism that prices for the sixth cut may improve.

Idaho – Hay conditions have improved throughout the season, and ample supplies are available. Sluggish demand from dairies and exporters is pressuring prices. Many hay growers face the decision to accept lower prices and sell their hay now or hold off in hopes of better prices this winter. Currently, drought conditions are worsening across the state, sparking some interest from ranchers looking to purchase hay. 

Montana – Montana's hay growers endured a challenging season marked by unpredictable rainfall. Early dry conditions in the Hi-Line region limited production. August and September storms disrupted harvests, lowering hay quality in some areas and increasing grain hay supplies. Hay and straw prices have remained mostly stable. 

Oregon – Hay production was strong, but summer thunderstorms created a tight harvest window. Weak demand and oversupply have kept prices low. While water supplies improved for the first time since 2019, concerns linger due to past droughts. Grass seed growers are struggling after an early harvest led to a light crop.  

Washington – The fourth cutting of hay has shown lower quality due to damage from late-season rains. Export demand has been challenging. In Yakima, the hay market has been impacted by water challenges, with junior water rights being cut off as of Aug. 15. The U.S. has lost market share in Asia to Australia and Spain.  


Profitability

Hay (Alfalfa): Breakeven profitability Neutral 12-month outlook
Hay (Timothy): Slightly profitabile Neutral 12-month outlook


Lower hay prices, driven by higher production, weaker demand, and cheaper feed alternatives, continue to challenge grower profitability. However, there is growing optimism that prices have bottomed out and may rebound in the coming year.

Increasing exporter interest in timothy hay could boost grower profitability.




Monday, October 6, 2025

State-By-State Hay Summary

Colorado—In the Sept. 25 report, trade activity and demand moderate. Small squares and medium 3×3 squares of horse hay sold unevenly steady. Next report will be released Oct. 9.

Missouri—In the Sept. 18 report, compared to last report, hay movement has been slow to moderate and there has been an uptick, but with many baling a lot of hay and having supplies on hand it hasn’t been anything extreme at this point. There is currently a lot of hay offered for sale without having to travel very far regardless of where in the state one might be. Hay prices are steady to firm, supplies are moderate to heavy, and demand is light to moderate. Hay feeding or supplementing of some kind has become fairly common in the southern half of the state. Luckily before rains quit in early August grass had been abundant, and producers baled a lot of hay early. Without some fall rains soon though it could make for an incredibly long feeding season as first frost date isn’t all that far away. 

Nebraska—In the Sept. 25 report, compared to last report, all reported bales of hay sold steady. Demand was light. Quite a lot of talk of cutworm issues in alfalfa this month. Some producers say it has mowed a lot of the fourth cutting off. Many are spraying to save what they can of the alfalfa plant. Usually September is a slow month to move hay due to people being busy with the start of fall harvest. With September being wet, silage chopping and high moisture corn production has been pushed back in many areas, and it looks like October may be another slow month for hay producers in net sales. Grass is also bountiful in most areas of the state, and more than likely cattle will graze until the dry corn is picked and cattle must be moved to winter grazing. Some producers are thinking of throwing the towel in and tearing up standing alfalfa fields as cattle numbers remain low, price per ton they are receiving is lower than break even cost and other variables thrown into their thought process.

Oklahoma—In the Sept. 19 report, compared to last report, demand is at a standstill. While some parts of the state continue to receive some moisture, drought is spreading throughout Oklahoma. Yet, grass continues to grow, and hay baling continues. This slows down the hay sales. Next report will be released Oct. 3.

Texas—In the Sept. 19 report, compared to last report, hay prices are mostly steady with some instances of $5 lower and light demand. Adequate to excellent supplies were reported in all regions. Next report will be released Oct. 3.

South Dakota—In the Sept. 26 report, compared to last report, demand light to moderate currently, best demand continues to come from out of state interests. High testing alfalfa hay is harder to find this year as the persistent rain showers and high humidity kept hay from curing quickly. Many dairies have chosen to chop and make haylage as dry hay has been hard to make. Fourth cutting of alfalfa was a little easier to put up as the rains became less frequent.

New Mexico—In the Sept. 19 report, compared to last report, the hay market appeared slightly lower.

Wyoming—In the Sept. 18 report, compared to the last report, most hay sales sold steady. Demand was moderate. This week’s trades were a pretty even mix of hay going to ranches, feedlots, and dairies. Dairy quality alfalfa hay is bringing around 1.00 per point RFV. Grinder quality alfalfa moving to the feedlots are delivering at low values. Ranch hay is bringing a significant premium over what feedlots are offering. Recent storms are hitting areas where third cutting hay is on the ground and delaying corn silage harvest that’s underway. 

Montana—In the Sept. 19 report, compared to last report, hay sold generally steady to $10 lower. Demand was mostly light to moderate on moderate to heavy supplies. Supplies of grain hay remain heavy. Late summer rains have helped with fall regrowth in many locations and demand for hay has softened slightly. Rain has also led to excess supplies of utility and fair quality hay as many fields were rained on prior to getting baled. Hay prices remain the highest in Northern Montana, however prices even along the highline have softened slightly. Some producers and ranchers are attempting to get an additional cutting of hay along the highline as late summer rains helped spur enough regrowth to justify another cutting. Straw sold fully steady. Market activity was mostly moderate this secession.




Regional Hay Prices





New Mexico Direct Hay Report