Forage Fodder: July 2025

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Dakota Hay Auction - Corsica, SD (Monday)

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Hay Market Report for the Upper Midwest

Hay exports suffered this spring

Hay exports have taken a noticeable hit in recent years and struggle to rebound to desirable levels. So far in 2025, a combination of economic pressures has negatively impacted the volume of hay that has left the country. Though less of a factor for hay production in Eastern states, the export market has a significant influence on Western hay prices.

As of this writing, the most recent data from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service shows U.S. hay exports during April. All hay exports that month totaled 223,114 metric tons (MT), which was down 31% year-over-year. Alfalfa hay exports totaled 141,441 MT, representing a 37% decline compared to April 2024. All other hay exports (mostly grass) totaled 81,673 MT — 16% less than April 2024.

All hay exports from January to April totaled 976,927 MT, which was down 17% compared to the same time frame last year. Although this is roughly on par with export data from 2023, it is a sizable step down in export totals during the first four months of the year compared to most years within the past decade (Figure 1).

Fading demand from China

According to Josh Callen, author of the Hoyt Report, there are three primary factors for the decline in U.S. hay demand so far this year: the trade war with China, dwindling demand from our largest hay customers, and the continuing strength of the U.S. dollar.

China has been the long-time top export market for U.S. alfalfa hay, comprising the lion’s share of shipments out of our nation’s ports. But when the threat of tariffs and an ensuing trade war arose in March, Callen said both parties got spooked and a lot of product was held back or rerouted to Japan at a discount.

“It’s been tough for exporters,” Callen empathized. “A lot of them are kind of in survival mode as they try to make it through this.”

Then, the U.S. and China reached an agreement to lower tariffs while a more comprehensive agreement was negotiated. At this point, Callen reported there was a mixed bag of reactions from major exporters, with some refusing to ship and others rushing to move product before trade conditions changed. Even so, alfalfa hay exports to China dropped significantly from 82,982 MT in March to 50,397 MT in April. Total hay exports to China, including grass hay, were the lowest monthly totals since July 2023.

These trade issues coupled with a diminishing dairy industry can explain China’s reduced demand for U.S. hay. Callen noted China had overestimated its domestic dairy demand and thus overbuilt its national dairy herd, only to end up downsizing the industry and culling a large number of cows in recent years.

Exchange rate uncertainty

According to Callen, a similar situation is taking shape on Japan’s dairy scene, but not quite to the same extent. Although Japan did surpass China on the leaderboard for the first time in a long time, total hay exports to Japan have recently started to lag.

“Shipments to China over the first four months of the year now trail those to Japan — something that hasn’t occurred in several years,” he wrote in the June 6 Hoyt Report. “At the same time, all hay exports to Japan were down 12% year-over-year.”

One of the main drivers of reduced demand from Japan has been an ongoing battle between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. Callen said the exchange rate was virtually unchanged for years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the Japanese yen has had significantly less buying power against the U.S. dollar.

Another exchange rate for exporters to be aware of is that between the U.S. and Canadian dollars. As the strength of the dollar for our neighbors to the north continues to soften, Callen said Canada has an edge over the U.S. in the global hay market.

“All trading is done in U.S. dollars, so when [Canada] converts U.S. dollars to Canadian dollars, and if their currency is weaker, it just means they receive more,” Callen explained. “That’s an advantage for [Canada] because they can lower their price for hay, yet they are going to get more money back because of the exchange rate.”

There has been speculation that as demand shifts away from our nation’s largest Asian markets, it will be redirected and spread out across more Middle Eastern countries. This has yet to be the case. Callen noted that freight costs and shipping logistics to the Middle East are much more challenging to navigate compared to sending cargo to China and Japan.

“We’d hope that a lower price would attract more buyers, but so far that hasn’t materialized in the numbers yet,” he said. “I wish the [Middle East] would take more of our hay, but I haven’t really seen that shift.”

Iowa Direct Hay Report

USDA Hay Markets – July 29, 2025

Kansas Direct Hay Report

More: Kansas Direct Hay Report

Monday, July 28, 2025

State-By-State Hay Summary

Colorado—In the July 17 report, compared to last report, trade activity and demand light. No market trend available due to a lack of comparable trades. Next report will be released July 31.

Missouri—In the July 10 report, compared to last report, the supply of hay is moderate, and demand is light to moderate. Hay progress for hay other than alfalfa is running slightly behind average pace. Getting hay baled this year has been a challenge due to rains, although weather has been good for grass growth and much of the hay has been baled with a significant amount of maturity which has affected quality. Demand is light to moderate with most coming from equine interest. Most cattle producers are not really in the market at this time.

Nebraska—In the July 17 report, compared to two weeks ago, small square bales of alfalfa and grass hay sold steady. Not enough test on round bales for a market trend. Ground and delivered hay sold steady to $5 lower. Dairy hay contracts between the same parties sold $10 lower than last year’s contract. Several of the ground and delivered companies are off the market on buying new crop hay as they continue to work through previous years stockpile hay supplies. Demand was almost nil these last two weeks. Alfalfa producers are finishing up second with others starting on third cutting. Grass hay production is off some from last year tonnage as spring moisture was slow to come and the plants are just maturing late. Maybe 2 to 4 weeks behind a “normal” year.

Oklahoma—In the July 11 report, compared to last report, demand is at a standstill. There are some movements, but not enough for a trend for all types of hay. Parts of Oklahoma have been able to start baling hay, but other parts haven’t been able to get into their fields. Rains aren’t helping with high humidity. This continues to prevent hay producers from harvesting hay and moving hay. Mature hay is becoming a problem for hay producers as well. Next report will be released July 25.

Texas—In the July 11 report, compared to last report, hay prices are mostly steady across all regions with light to moderate demand. Rains have improved drought conditions in some areas. The next available hay report will be July 25.

South Dakota—In the July 11 report, compared to last report, alfalfa hay steady. Light to moderate demand currently. Hay growers have had a very difficult time with second cutting of alfalfa and first cutting of grass as frequent rains and high humidity levels have made it near impossible to put up dry hay. More rain in the forecast for next week.

New Mexico—In the July 14 report, compared to last report, hay market mostly steady to firm with third cuttings are underway.

Wyoming—In the July 10 report, compared to the last report, old crop square bales of alfalfa sold steady. Alfalfa cubes and pellets sold steady. On comparable new crop sales of alfalfa sold steady on a thin test. Demand was light to instances moderate. Spotty rain showers across different areas of the state along with several contacts noting their next cutting of alfalfa was pretty much destroyed by hail. Most contacts have mowed and baled what was left of their alfalfa hoping for a good regrowth and decent tonnage on the next round of production.

Montana—In the July 11 report, compared to the June 20 report, hay sold mostly steady to firm on good to very good demand. The strongest demand was seen from northern Montana, as buyers were very active in purchasing hay again. Most of the hay sold was purchased delivered for $195-$210. New crop prices continue to establish themselves and some variation in price was seen this secession. Ranchers remain aggressive has they show concerns over the quantity of hay available. Northern ranchers, which normally put up much of their own hay, were forced to buy a portion of their winter hay this year as both drought conditions and limited irrigation water hindered production. With more cows and heifers retained this year ranchers will have more mouths to feed compared to last winter. Producers in southern and eastern Montana are wrapping up first cutting, with some starting second. Central Montana is in the midst of first. Many producers along the highline are trying to get second cutting irrigated before they cut off irrigation water for the year. Market activity was mostly moderate this week.