Market conditions are improving for hay growers across the Western U.S., with hay supplies stabilizing and demand gradually increasing. Alfalfa prices are expected to rise across the board, driven by tightening supplies and early signs of dry pasture conditions. Producers are seeing heightened demand across all hay grades.
Exports rebound.
The export market is showing signs of early recovery following several years of tightening demand and slim margins. Following the implementation of tariffs in March 2025, hay exports dropped 16.6% year over year, with significant declines in shipments to key Asian markets. However, 2026 brings a much-needed turnaround. Export volumes in January and February have returned to pre-tariff levels, driven by China’s re-entry into the market and increased purchases from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Middle East.
Export movement has improved enough that some large exporters anticipate running out of hay before the new crop comes off. This would allow the industry to start fresh this year without the burden of heavy carryover inventories that have depressed prices in recent seasons.
Drought and water concerns grow.
Drought and water availability remain the most significant concerns for Western hay growers. As of April 7, drought affected 46% of all alfalfa acreage. In the Northwest, a dry winter has left mountain snowpack depleted, with some regions concerned about water allocations for the coming season.
Further south, negotiations over the Colorado River are taking place during an incredibly tense period. The seven basin states have repeatedly missed deadlines to establish a new operating agreement. The river's two main reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, sit near 31% of their capacity. If current agreements hold without a new consensus, Arizona could face severe mandatory water cuts, and California would likely see reductions as well.
In California’s Imperial Valley, the highly utilized Deficit Irrigation Program is in its final year under the current agreement. The program, which compensates farmers for not irrigating hay fields for 45 to 60 days during the summer, will see eligible acres cut in half this year due to depleted funding.
Conditions by state:
Arizona
Producers are facing extreme heat and ongoing water challenges, prompting some growers to cut earlier due to heat stress, which has resulted in lower quality hay. Compared to other regional crops, hay remains slightly unprofitable, while market conditions and prices have stayed mostly steady.
California
The closure of an Imperial Valley sugar beet plant opened approximately 25,000 acres. Many of these acres will transition to forage production, raising market saturation concerns. In central California, weak milk prices are limiting demand for small-volume blends, while a mild winter extended grazing opportunities and suppressed domestic hay demand.
Idaho
Demand for all hay types remains positive as supplies right-size. Feeder hay is becoming harder to find, which supports localized demand. Fieldwork is underway, but conditions remain dry and windy, and many alfalfa fields will require moisture soon. Drought concerns are intensifying due to a light snowpack and early water restrictions already being implemented. Most hay producing regions are now classified under severe drought.
Montana
With 64% of the state’s alfalfa acres facing drought conditions on April 7, livestock producers are closely monitoring pasture health. Dry subsoil moisture and relentless winds have prompted early hay purchases to secure reliable feed. Feeder hay currently ranges from $125 to $150 per ton, and price increases are expected due to rising demand.
Oregon
Larger hay producers with established exporter relationships are seeing increased sales, successfully moving export-quality alfalfa and timothy hay with minimal logistical challenges. Smaller growers are showing resilience by diversifying into small bale production for feed stores. In the Klamath Basin, dry conditions have prompted the Drought Response Agency to offer $250–$300 per acre for land idling, which will reduce overall hay and grain acreage.
Washington
Producers are optimistic following a strong cleanup of remaining hay inventory, particularly on the alfalfa side. Alfalfa acres are expected to hold steady, though timothy hay acres might see a slight increase due to strong seed sales. Additionally, late-season potato processor cuts left a surplus of open ground in the Columbia Basin region. With profitable alternative crops currently limited, producers are carefully evaluating planting options for the season ahead.
Profitability
Hay (alfalfa): Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Hay (timothy): Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook
Alfalfa hay markets are expected to operate near breakeven in 2026, as relatively stable but low prices are magnified by high production costs and continued softness in export demand.
Timothy hay markets are expected to operate near breakeven in 2026, as steady but limited demand is offset by elevated production expenses.
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