For the first time since 2023, May 1 hay stocks declined. That’s according to USDA’s annual assessment of the collective U.S. haymow. The report pegged hay stocks just short of 23.3 million tons, which was down 0.8 million tons (3.3%) from 2025’s May 1 hay inventory.
Although the extent of the reduction isn’t terribly impressive, the break in the upward trend toward growing hay inventories is noteworthy. Between 2023 and 2025, May 1 hay stocks grew by nearly 9.8 million tons. This past December, year-over-year hay stocks had essentially remained stable.
There were some hay-producing states that had significant year-over-year May 1 stock gains (see table below). Those with the largest increases included:
West Virginia: up 153%
Ohio: up 119%
Kansas: up 70%
Virginia: up 54%
New Mexico: up 50%
Conversely, there were also some major hay-producing states that experienced notable inventory reductions. This group included:
Utah: down 41%
Wisconsin: down 35%
New York: down 35%
Texas: down 33%
Colorado: down 32%
Hay disappearance
Hay disappearance (primarily feeding) between December 1, 2025, and May 1, 2026, totaled nearly 58.4 million tons. This was the most hay fed since 2022 (see graph).
Prior to the 2011 and 2012 drought years, disappearance from hay barns and stacks was always in the 80 million to 85 million tons range. Since 2012, it’s been rare to have a year where disappearance exceeded 70 million tons. During seven of the past eight years, hay feeding has been under 65 million tons.
Looking ahead
Since the record-low May 1 hay stocks year of 2023, barns and stacks swelled by nearly 10 million tons. Although that’s still a true statement, some of that swelling started to subside in 2026. That’s at least a positive sign for maintaining or strengthening hay prices. As is always the case, weather and water availability will ultimately dictate where hay yields and prices head.
Low commodity prices make hay-competitive feeds cheaper, although there is some sign of those strengthening in 2026. Beef prices are expected to stay strong in the foreseeable future, while milk prices look to be in a hold pattern. Strong beef prices continue to temper U.S. herd growth, although there has been significant growth in the nation’s dairy herd.
Hay crop input prices are going to cut into the slim margins already being seen for producers. Fuel (trucking) and fertilizer — especially nitrogen — are going to be particularly troublesome in 2026 because of the Middle East conflict. Hay growers will need to remain diligent in knowing their costs of production. Still, there are early signs that hay prices are going to be somewhat stronger in 2026 than they were in 2025. Better prices will be needed to overcome greater input costs.
Alfalfa export volumes during the first quarter of the year were down 9% from 2025, which depresses competition for Western hay, but there is some optimism that exports will improve in 2026. Shipments to the Middle East are currently being severely hampered by the war.
Everything considered, it’s reasonable to expect that 2026 hay prices should improve compared to last year, but how much of an improvement is hard to say. There is the expectation that an El Niño weather pattern will take hold at some point this summer. Some are predicting a stronger than normal event. That usually means that if you’ve been wet, you’ll probably get dry, and if you’ve been dry, you’ll probably get wet.
Finally, let’s not forget the two hay market mantras that hold true every year. First, high-quality hay always sells for a premium price and costs no more to make than poor-quality hay. Making quality hay is the quickest way to widen profit margins.
Second, hay markets are largely a regional phenomenon. Local weather conditions and predominant enterprise types (dairy, beef, or equine) will ultimately dictate the demand and price for hay.
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